2015 Mustang sales numbers and take rate predictions

[Patio208]

I think some may be missing the point of the I4 a bit. I firmly believe the I4 is gunning for current V8 owners and the V6 is just an afterthought. Sure V6 sales will be demolished after this but I think what Ford really cares about is the new engine allows them to push up the price of the GT since there is now a 'tweener price point they've hit. V8 purists will have to fork over a few thousand more for the privilege of not helping meet CAFE numbers. V8 take rate will come down (see F-150 for how that works) and that's what Ford wants. Sure the I4 will cost less and be somwhat less profitable but it can be balanced by more volume and if Ford were to offer some kind of special SVO tuner package which I think would be hugely popular. They will also make up for it with a more expensive GT.

All my own speculation but this is the business proposition of the I4 in my mind, for Ford.

I agree and I pretty much got shouted out of the room when I suggested this in another thread. My presentation was different but my main point was like it or not the GT has continuously moved upstream in performance and price especially with I4 pushing the envelope further. That's the new reality. People got really offended at the thought of the I4 being something other than the base model (which it may become). I for one am a V8 guy but will take a long hard look at the I4 before I decide so that strategy is working.

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[Gman11Gt]

Here are the Mustang's recent sales numbers by year:

2005 160,975
2006 166,530
2007 134,626
2008 91,251
2009 66,623
2010 73,716
2011 70,438
2012 82,995
2013 on pace for about 78k.

As background, Ford has sold 400k Ecoboost F150's since they were introduced in Feb 2011. (source)

The Ecoboost accounts for 45% of its sales which surpasses the V8 take rate since the 3.7L base accounts for a little over 10% take rate. Keep in mind also the F150 has 2 V8 options and together they still are outsold by the V6 Ecoboost.


My guess is total sales for the first full year could reach as high as 130-150k. If they can steal away about 20k Camaro/Challenger sales combined (look at how much of a hit the Mustang took in 2008/2009 when Camaro returned), add about 10k in overseas sales (based on their own estimates of 10% of total production ending up overseas), and add another 10-20k in NEW customers (meaning non pony car buyers) in the US, it's more than possible. I wonder what Ford has projected and what numbers they would be happy with.


As for take rate, from this forum alone it seems like there is a lot of interest in the new engine and I'm guessing V6 sales would account for no more than 15-20% of sales which would be about 20k cars. With fleet sales it could be higher but that's almost not enough to justify keeping it around. They might as well scrap it and add a new engine offering that could draw in even more customers.... like the 3.5L TT.

It will be hard pressed to get to those numbers for the 2005 Mustang since that was meant to appeal to the Baby boomer generation (that have money to lay down on a new one) with the Retro body style. It ended up being a big hit. I loved it as well and it ended up reaching into the wallets of many generations. It was completly different from the 04. (I still like the old Cobra's in that generation). In any case, I just wanted to point that out. That is a huge market (baby boomer) that is now much older and with the car going away from the retro it has to be a world car to generate more sales. It will be cross shopped now with the Genesis R spec, the FRS, Camaro, and Challenger along with others. I think the only way to get sales up to those levels is to make a sedan version. (I know, right:headbonk. That would appeal to the husband and wife with kids that want sporty, or to females all together. Maybe make a base v6 sedan for the rental queen market.

Either way you slice it, I don't see the sales getting above 150k. Also, it was mainly the economy in 08, and as mentioned it isn't a viable choice for a DD up in winter areas.

I think the new Mustang looks attractive and look forward to the actual numbers and how it performs and looks in real life. This is my first post by the way and have been looking at the forum since the 15 was in the rumor mill.

 

[Tony Alonso]

I think within the next few years, Ford will phase out the hefty V8s in Mustangs, leaving that for uber drag crowd.

Coincidentally, it is logical, that we will see Ford introduce an SVT with a twin-turbo V6 & a GT500 with a uber V8. I see them eventually phasing out the inefficient V6, leaving variations of the 2.3L-ts and 3.7L-TT, or some other new turbo (EB3.5, etc)). Leaving lower volume V8s being sold at GT500/SnuperSnake tiers.

Since the current 5.0 is amortized with trucks, I would see this engine continuing on for awhile. I am interested to see what happens with I4 vs. V6 in terms of future development. I don't forsee a turbo V6 in the GT level or even an SVT variant. The V8s, in my opinion, are tied very closely to the image of them.

 

[w3rkn]

Turbo v6 will be in a Mustang within 2 years...

 

[Rickycardo]

Turbo v6 will be in a Mustang within 2 years...

I agree. I think something along the line of the SHO's EB3.5 could be down the road. I think the SHO Taurus is supposed to be the performance sedan but there's a lot of work to do there.
I can see Lincoln trying something on S550 like a Porsche Panamerica(sp?).

 

[Tony Alonso]

Turbo v6 will be in a Mustang within 2 years...

That might very well be. If it went into a "GT", I believe there would be a fairly loud negative reaction to it in that model level, not the powertrain itself. I think its more likely an engine like this would be in the rumored Lincoln car based off this Mustang's platform.

 

[mustangletback]

A lot of people on here are saying that they never would have consider Mustang before, largely because of not having IRS, and lack of refinements. Several of my friends, that although like the look and horsepower of my car would never buy one in it's current configuration. Now, they are totally looking at getting one, and I think a lot of people who were into turbo imports will also be swayed into the domestic market.


So, if we consider these things:

1. Current Mustang fans, majority like the new design.
2. Import car buyers, now interested in ecoboost and V8
3. European fans of BMW, VW and Audi, now interested.
4. The car is going GLOBAL, this right here is going to increase sales alone.

Add all these up, and I won't be a bit surprised that 2015/2016 model sales top
that of 2005/06.

Heck, I'm a Mustang fan, and I didn't even buy the 2005 re-design because of the
solid rear axel. I told my self after the Terminator I wouldn't buy a brand new Mustang until they can get a decent IRS in there. Of course I didn't hold out and bought a 2012 GT500. :-)

i tend to agree with you.IF,and i do mean IF,FORD keeps the price down i do believe they will sell good.the turbo 4 will be the one to do it.i love the v8.i have said that the new COBRA should have 725hp,and the gt 475hp.

 

[monksey7]

I agree that it IS a game changer. I just don't think it's the sort of game changer that's going to get the Mustang back to 160K or more units per year.

If you want to say that the market has changed, and nothing can get it back to 160K, fine. Fair enough. That's possible. I tend to disagree, though. I don't find it completely impossible to imagine Ford making a Mustang that could sell 200,000 units per year... that could sell as well as a Fusion or a Focus. What would that take? Frankly, I think it would take a lower price. I can imagine a smaller, cheaper, less-well-equipped Mustang starting at, say, $18K getting to 200K. Seriously.

Now, many will say, 'No freakin' way. I want a Mustang that competes with BMWs and Corvettes, not with Civics and Scions. I want all the bells and whistles, and if that means a starting price north of $25K, so be it.' And that's a perfectly valid point of view. I get that. It's just that the less affordable the car gets, the harder it will be to regain high-volume sales. Again, some will respond, 'Well, I don't care about high-volume sales. The more exclusive, the better.' And that's also a perfectly valid point of view. I'm just trying to offer an alternate viewpoint to those making bold predictions of this car selling in numbers equal or better than the '05-06.

Why not make a smaller car with a live rear axle, to keep costs down and to keep the drag racing fans happy, maybe call it the falcon or Thunderbird, offer the same engines as the mustang but with less equipment and sell it globally alongside the new mustang.
:ford:

 

[Rickycardo]

Why not make a smaller car with a live rear axle, to keep costs down and to keep the drag racing fans happy, maybe call it the falcon or Thunderbird, offer the same engines as the mustang but with less equipment and sell it globally alongside the new mustang.

There are several reasons why this wouldn't work. Ford doesn't want another Ford brand name competing with the Mustang for sales. Another V8, rear drive performance car would cut into the sales numbers of the Mustang, not add to it. Ford has been trying to keep the drag race crowd happy with cars like the Cobra Jet but that crowd is a very small minority of all possible customers that Ford is trying to reach. As much as some might like it the world truly doesn't want a performance car with a live rear axle. This is a global platform and the vast majority of global buyers want an IRS.
Finally, think marketing. If you created this car (low cost, low sales price, live rear axle, v8 power), who would you market it to? Who would be it's main competitor? (in the sales market, not the racetrack). And how many do you honestly think you could sell on a global market? 10K? 20K? Remember the European market has to pay an addition $50k -$60k in environmental taxes to own this V8. That's why hot hatchbacks are, in fact, hot over there.
No, for Ford to sell more the Mustang has to step away from it's drag racing past and become a true global sports car.
IMO of course.

 

[monksey7]

There are several reasons why this wouldn't work. Ford doesn't want another Ford brand name competing with the Mustang for sales. Another V8, rear drive performance car would cut into the sales numbers of the Mustang, not add to it. Ford has been trying to keep the drag race crowd happy with cars like the Cobra Jet but that crowd is a very small minority of all possible customers that Ford is trying to reach. As much as some might like it the world truly doesn't want a performance car with a live rear axle. This is a global platform and the vast majority of global buyers want an IRS.
Finally, think marketing. If you created this car (low cost, low sales price, live rear axle, v8 power), who would you market it to? Who would be it's main competitor? (in the sales market, not the racetrack). And how many do you honestly think you could sell on a global market? 10K? 20K? Remember the European market has to pay an addition $50k -$60k in environmental taxes to own this V8. That's why hot hatchbacks are, in fact, hot over there.
No, for Ford to sell more the Mustang has to step away from it's drag racing past and become a true global sports car.
IMO of course.

I see your argument however it's nothing like 50-60 thousand dollars, and if ford tuned the mustang engines down, only a little, get rid of the 2 back seats and maybe not sell it with a V8 then it could be a rival to an MX-5 or BMW 2 series M Sport and not be a rival to a Mustang, but be a smaller version for a younger age group, like the fiesta is to the focus or how the camaro is to the corvette. Also if it was to be put into production people would take Ford more seriously when it comes to performance motoring. Finally Ford currently are losing out on a large portion of the performance car sector with the Mustang the only Ford performance car still on sale and as the Mustang is in the middle of the performance band Ford have nothing anywhere where near McLaren's and Ferrari's and nothing for inexperienced drivers, the Mustang is too powerful for an inexperienced driver who would concequently buy a 370z, M2/2M, toyota gt86/subaru brz or a Porsche boxter and it is not powerful or quick enough to wow millionares so Ford only have a small part of the performance car sector.

By the way I am from europe!

 

[Rickycardo]

I am 100% sure I will buy the I4.

The reason is simple: I refuse to pay the $65,000 environmental taxes that come with buying a V8 over here.

Posted by Ericc B from Amsterdam in the V8 5.0L Discussions forum.

 

[Rickycardo]

I believe Ford has done all that you ask in the new 2015 model. A turbo I4 to compete with the GT86 / BRZ, a V8 that competes with the M3 and Porsche 911 and an Uber model (GT500, Mach I, Cobra, etc) to compete with the supercar genre.
As far as losing a large piece of the performance car market that market isn't very large to begin with. Sales of even popular performance cars are extremely low. Even the long lasting Porsche 911 has only sold 820K units since 1963. Nissan Z cars; 1.5 million since 1969, Dodge Viper; 28K units, The best selling Ferrari 360 and the Lambo Gallardo have only sold 17K and 13K respectively. Compare that with the Mustang selling over 9 million units since 1964, even the Camaro at 4.8 million is a distant second. All these numbers are on Wikipedia list of auto sales by model.
I think Ford is positioning the Mustang perfectly where it can attract new buyers and still have appeal to the purists.

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