OH3Cobra
Well-Known Member
- Thread starter
- #1
I'd appreciate some help with production math and timing on when I could potentially expect my order (NO VIN assigned yet)
Key inputs needed and believe the answers are here in this community. Just trying to keep my sanity and doing some math....
My Thought process/Methodology
1. Number of Vin's built and delivered (or in shipment) - What's the number already on 4 wheels (call it Built)
2. Number of Vin's issued but not built yet (i.e. production backlog - Call that the IN Que number )
3 Those two numbers combined (Built + IN Que) minus the 5000 targeted production number leave the Ordered but not assigned a VIN number (call that the LIMBO number)
4 What is the current average daily production number of Shelby's per day (Daily production number)
5. How much time is left in the Model Year to build 2020 Shelby's?
Thought process/Methodology applied
1. I'm betting we're close to 3000 Shelby's built to date. Built number - 3000
2. Assuming cars are scheduled out to 1st week in August now IN Que number- 650
3. Limbo number (3000+450= 3650, 5000 - 3650 =1350 Estimated LIMBO number is 1350 units.
Timing
If my numbers are close then we need to look at build rate. Assuming 400 Mustangs a day and 45 of those being GT500's
5 day working week = 225, or 6 day work week 270 units
If the IN Que number is 650 then we say 3 weeks to produce VIN's IN Que (July end)
That leaves the 1350 In Limbo to be produced
1350/225 is 6 weeks. Taking production if all goes well at these projected rates until Mid/Late September.
When is the MY cut over and what do you think of my assumptions. All inputs appreciated! The more accurate the
inputs the better the discussion.
Key inputs needed and believe the answers are here in this community. Just trying to keep my sanity and doing some math....
My Thought process/Methodology
1. Number of Vin's built and delivered (or in shipment) - What's the number already on 4 wheels (call it Built)
2. Number of Vin's issued but not built yet (i.e. production backlog - Call that the IN Que number )
3 Those two numbers combined (Built + IN Que) minus the 5000 targeted production number leave the Ordered but not assigned a VIN number (call that the LIMBO number)
4 What is the current average daily production number of Shelby's per day (Daily production number)
5. How much time is left in the Model Year to build 2020 Shelby's?
Thought process/Methodology applied
1. I'm betting we're close to 3000 Shelby's built to date. Built number - 3000
2. Assuming cars are scheduled out to 1st week in August now IN Que number- 650
3. Limbo number (3000+450= 3650, 5000 - 3650 =1350 Estimated LIMBO number is 1350 units.
Timing
If my numbers are close then we need to look at build rate. Assuming 400 Mustangs a day and 45 of those being GT500's
5 day working week = 225, or 6 day work week 270 units
If the IN Que number is 650 then we say 3 weeks to produce VIN's IN Que (July end)
That leaves the 1350 In Limbo to be produced
1350/225 is 6 weeks. Taking production if all goes well at these projected rates until Mid/Late September.
When is the MY cut over and what do you think of my assumptions. All inputs appreciated! The more accurate the
inputs the better the discussion.
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