The stock market top is in

[BlackandBlue]

The stock market has been going gangbuster since the little dip we experienced in March.

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[Bikeman315]

The stock market has been going gangbuster since the little dip we experienced in March. Most hedge funds and CTA were caught completely off guard by the sudden flood of retail stay at home trader. As is generally the case though the dumb money always ends up holding the bad while the smart money gets out.

No one can ever predict the top of the market but seeing Hertz sell for the first time in history, equities during bankruptcy is a good indicator. For those that don’t know equities are complete unsecured and almost worthless in bankruptcy. Hertz is about to offer a billion in stock to basically transfer to their bondholder. Hertz is complete insolvent and will be broken up and sold.

This is beyond stupid.

Hertz would include disclosure in any prospectus used to offer common stock highlighting that an investment in Hertz’s common stock entails significant risks, including the risk that the common stock could ultimately be worthless.

When the pool of greater fools run out we figure out who the fools actual were.

Spoke to my money guy yesterday. The market is forward looking and they are hoping that things will still turn around in the back half of the year. It does appears that the hope is starting to recede and as it does so will the market. And by the way the market is up 217 points as of 1:27PM. Go figure.

 

[Bikeman315]

Didn’t last long. Negative now.

VIX is at 43. VIX puts are getting expensive also. No one can ever predict the future but I think it’s safe to say we are closer to the top than the bottom.

Positive 396 now. What a day.

 

[Shifting_Gears]

Today was a cluster. Depending on how next week goes, I’ll probably pull out and see what happens over the next few weeks. Either that or ride for the long term. I got in the market mid-late March and started “learning” in that period. I have a spread of ETF’s which aren’t good long term holds but have worked well so far given where I got in and the recovery that WAS taking place.

By no means do I have big money invested but I decided taking some action was better than watching everyone else play from the sidelines.

 

[Shifting_Gears]

Interesting close last week. Fairly flat Monday and a progressive Tuesday to close out a record quarter. Funny thing is, there would be no record quarter without COVID.. so I don’t really see that as a bragging point.

I think our recovery will be up and down until people get tired of emotional investing and the bottom line of raveged companies force a market correction.

It would appear we will see an overall “quick” recovery compared to 2008, but our results may vary widely. I think that can be credited to re opening and people flocking in droves to reclaim a sense of normality. Honestly people have been making more money on unemployment than prior to Covid so there’s bound to be a temporary flood of consumer dollars into the market. Still interested/nervous to see what happens with housing over the next few months.

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