The Official M6G Investment thread

[Joe 5.0]

Anyone investing in oil or airlines the coming days? I should have jumped on these when the market was down a few days ago.

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[shogun32]

any "bad press conference" will turn this bounce right around. I would stay well clear of the market unless you're betting "lose it" money until this Chinese Wuhan virus circus is about to be wrapped up. I personally would NEVER invest in airlines. They have gone bankrupt how many times already?

 

[machsmith]

I have made good money from this "recovery". I can tell you one thing though I got completely out today. This is not natural. To me it feels like the crypto market where everything is manipulated.
I'll sit on the sidelines over the weekend. There is no way in hell our market should be officially out of a bear market. 3M jobs lost and will be more yet our markets are raising 15% in the last 3 days? hahahaha

 

[Shifting_Gears]

Anyone investing in oil or airlines the coming days? I should have jumped on these when the market was down a few days ago.

The airline bounceback would’ve been a good thing to plunge money into but the long term damage isn’t reflecting yet. Oil is the same. Oil is probably more stable than airlines. I dabbled in oil a little and it went up.

any "bad press conference" will turn this bounce right around. I would stay well clear of the market unless you're betting "lose it" money until this Chinese Wuhan virus circus is about to be wrapped up. I personally would NEVER invest in airlines. They have gone bankrupt how many times already?

Yeah I am second thinking my “stick it out” strategy. I think things will dip back down but I don’t know if we will see another massive drop like we did a week or two ago.

I think what’s invested in this period needs to be a quick flip or a very long term hold.

I have made good money from this "recovery". I can tell you one thing though I got completely out today. This is not natural. To me it feels like the crypto market where everything is manipulated.
I'll sit on the sidelines over the weekend. There is no way in hell our market should be officially out of a bear market. 3M jobs lost and will be more yet our markets are raising 15% in the last 3 days? hahahaha

I agree - this is not a reflection of the actual market. There’s a lot of emotional investing going on and there will be another huge waves of sell offs once people see this was a “dead cat bounce” as previously mentioned.

Perfect example - go look at cruise and Disney stock. Cruise lines are about to get bent over, no lube. Because they are largely non US based they will not be the receipients of bailouts like the airline industry will be. So tell me how Carnival, Royal and Norwegian who is also in legal hot water have had their shares SHOOT back up? They will be lucky to see passengers on a boat before the last quarter of this year. They’re breeding grounds for this shit.

I started with crypto and watched it tediously and it doesn’t even make sense. It’s 100% luck zero strategy. So I’m sidelining that idea.



So many major corporations will have to redo their entire fiscal projections and are going to completely miss their targets. They will literally have to adjust their positions and declare to Wall Street and the public “we are going from a $500
Million forecast to $200 million” or whatever. It’s going to be huge.

I work for a massive company that has weathered some really tough shit but what I’m seeing now is gut wrenching. Thank God as of now I have my job but that solely depends on how long this lasts. I’m a drop of water in the pond compared to many others, but for me this is my livelihood and our industry as a whole is pretty much going to be the hardest hit and take the longest to recover.

 

[Cobra Jet]

Anyone investing in oil or airlines the coming days? I should have jumped on these when the market was down a few days ago.

you’ll still have time, the market will tank again...

 

[Cobra Jet]

any "bad press conference" will turn this bounce right around. I would stay well clear of the market unless you're betting "lose it" money until this Chinese Wuhan virus circus is about to be wrapped up. I personally would NEVER invest in airlines. They have gone bankrupt how many times already?

exactly - investing in the airline industry is like taking a stack of hundreds and investing them into your toilet and flushing....

 

[Bull Run]

Anyone investing in oil or airlines the coming days? I should have jumped on these when the market was down a few days ago.

There'll be plenty of opportunities to buy energy and airline stocks cheap in the future:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-as-moscow-suggests-larger-opec-idUSKBN21E202
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/business/airlines-bailout-outlook-coronavirus/index.html

Stimulus doesn't change the fact that there's still serious lack of demand and oil companies are also getting hammered by the price war on top of it. I may dribble some into oil stocks if their prices remain low but if they somehow manage to avoid a dividend cut/freeze.

 

[machsmith]

don't go into just oil, go into the refineries.
I'm personally waiting for a higher low. If we break resistance, look out below!!
Personally think we tank, but 2.2T is a large number... still, even if we dont tank. I wouldn't expect to return to 2019/2020 highs again for a long time.

 

[shogun32]

PAA pays nicely but that might change badly if all these cash-furnace fracking guys (who survive only by debt) exit.

 

[Bull Run]

Found a site that's great for hobbyist investors like me. It provides all the significant statistics in easy to read graphs, to include plain language analysis for each and comparisons between its peers and overall market.

https://simplywall.st/stocks

 

[Bull Run]

How's everyone been doing after the last 10 months' worth of wild roller coaster rides? Only saving grace is the these roller coaster rides' been trending higher after the dips unlike real coaster rides.

S&P 500 Index:

On the other note, I recently finished "The Psychology of Money" by Howard Marks. I really liked it as come of the topics it explores includes why even highly educated/highly compensated people end up going bankrupt, whereas there are lowly paid/uneducated people who end up retiring as multi-millionaires.

There's another notable topic; everyone on this thread's probably familiar with the power of compounding and if you've been keeping track of your own net worth, it probably looks more exponential the older you got. This book has an excellent example of just how powerful it is:

"Buffett began serious investing when he was 10 years old. By the time he was 30 he had a net worth of $1 million, or $9.3 million adjusted for inflation.

What if he was a more normal person, spending his teens and 20s exploring the world and finding his passion, and by age 30 his net worth was, say, $25,000?

And let’s say he still went on to earn the extraordinary annual investment returns he’s been able to generate (22% annually), but quit investing and retired at age 60 to play golf and spend time with his grandkids.

What would a rough estimate of his net worth be today?

Not $84.5 billion.
$11.9 million.
99.9% less than his actual net worth.

Effectively all of Warren Buffett’s financial success can be tied to the financial base he built in his pubescent years and the longevity he maintained in his geriatric years."

 

[shogun32]

Effectively all of Warren Buffett’s financial success can be tied to the financial base he built in his pubescent years and the longevity he maintained in his geriatric years."

to a point but if you notice there has been no compounding for 10 years and meager for another 10 years before that. And he's made some fabulous 'investments' entirely due to his political influence which isn't remotely based on acumen or sound financial considerations.

One bad year in stocks can take an easy 10 years just to get back to where you were. Or if you're in Japan it's been 30 years and they're still not back to even.

Minimize losses is the key. I got rid of a bunch of stocks on quad-witch and out till power of succession is actually settled.

 

[Bull Run]

to a point but if you notice there has been no compounding for 10 years and meager for another 10 years before that. And he's made some fabulous 'investments' entirely due to his political influence which isn't remotely based on acumen or sound financial considerations.

The book averaged out his return to make a point about compounding. Also, chart of gain on Berkshire Hathaway stock contradicts your statement about no compounding. The book also states that Buffet lost money on majority of his bets, but receiving big wins from a few of his bets were more than enough to offset the losses and make major gains. This is similar to how S&P 500 index gains work as only a small number of stocks are responsible for big gains at any given time, while others lag or even lose money in the index: Just 14 Stocks Drove A Third Of The $7 Trillion Coronavirus Rally

Berkshire Hathaway

One bad year in stocks can take an easy 10 years just to get back to where you were. Or if you're in Japan it's been 30 years and they're still not back to even.

It's taken two years, on average, to come back from bear markets since 1946. I believe this is why some advisors recommend having three years worth of expenses saved in cash and investment grade bonds so you don't end up selling stocks to make ends meet while they're down. Granted, you're screwed if put all your money in a company like GE during its peak but I'm talking about S&P 500 (or funds that track it, like SPY) as a proxy for the market. Not sure where the Japan fits into this but I don't think there's anything restricting Japanese from investing in funds like SPY.

Minimize losses is the key. I got rid of a bunch of stocks on quad-witch and out till power of succession is actually settled.

I disagree on jumping in an out but I'm about as boring as an investor you can get, since I can't time the market and won't even try. I'm good with "OK" returns; I kept track of my net worth (NW = assets-liabilities, not counting the earned pension from the Army Reserve or personal items like cars to make things easier) monthly since about two years go.

I took over a $100K NW hit between March and April. I didn't do a sell off, but rather kept DCAing into stocks during the dips and my NW went up over $350K since beginning of April, or over $250K increase in NW before the COVID crash in March. From the Mustang forum perspective, I can cash out the $250K net gain now, purchase three GT500's, tell my wife that we fully recovered from the March crash with a straight face, and it wouldn't be lying. I'm perfectly "OK" with this type of return.

The S&P 500 reflects this since it's now at a higher point than before the crash. Granted, my NW would've been much higher if I sold everything before the crash and repurchased them at the bottom but I'd more likely missed a good portion of the rapid recovery.

The book also covers this in a hypothetical scenario:

"Consider what would happen if you saved $1 every month from 1900 to 2019. You could invest that $1 into the U.S. stock market every month, rain or shine. It doesn’t matter if economists are screaming about a looming recession or new bear market. You just keep investing. Let’s call an investor who does this Sue.

But maybe investing during a recession is too scary. So perhaps you invest your $1 in the stock market when the economy is not in a recession, sell everything when it’s in a recession and save your monthly dollar in cash, and invest everything back into the stock market when the recession ends. We’ll call this investor Jim.

Or perhaps it takes a few months for a recession to scare you out, and then it takes a while to regain confidence before you get back in the market. You invest $1 in stocks when there’s no recession, sell six months after a recession begins, and invest back in six months after a recession ends. We’ll call you Tom.

How much money would these three investors end up with over time?
Sue ends up with $435,551.
Jim has $257,386.
Tom $234,476.
Sue wins by a mile."

DCAing is like capitalism, it may be the worst investment system, except for all the others.

 

[shogun32]

a chart of his stock is not an indication of compounding. dividends paid and re-invested is more akin to compounding. If you haven't sold your position you haven't 'gained' squat. Good for you the utterly deranged market has served you well. Sell while the selling is good and make your gains real. Then if you think this insanity is just going to keep ticking, you can buy back in and risk a new batch of capital. As we've seen 30% losses in a day or two across the broad spectrum is entirely possible if not likely. The covid "recovery" should never have happened. That the FED intervened is not 'market sentiment' it's out and out rigging. Glad you got lucky.

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