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Ford's Wall Street Performance continues to look grim

nastang87xx

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Jim Hackett clearly has not been the answer...for now.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/ins...to-win-over-wall-street/ar-BBSCv4p?li=BBnbfcN

Sourced from Bloomberg.

And here's my thing. As a performance head, I feel like I have the TECHNICAL capability to understand what people want from a car. But to the root of it, I really have no clue. It would SEEM that the EcoSport and Edge would do very well. In fact I kinda like the Edge Sport and even the SEL 2.0 that I had for a rental when I was getting a half shaft replaced on my 350 wasn't really THAT bad.

So what are everyone's thoughts here? Do manufacturers have TOO many vehicle offerings? Not enough? Where are they missing the mark? Maybe Ford does have a point about ousting their passenger car portfolio and we just haven't seen the positive results yet. Again, let's look at this from an AVERAGE consumer's point of view. Yes, we love our V8's and our turbos and superchargers and all that but remember we are probably about only about 5% of the market. If the rest of the 95% doesn't survive, we don't survive.
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Fatguy

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Jim Hackett clearly has not been the answer...for now.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/inside-the-ticker/ford-ceo’s-‘thoughtful’-approach-fails-to-win-over-wall-street/ar-BBSCv4p?li=BBnbfcN

Sourced from Bloomberg.

And here's my thing. As a performance head, I feel like I have the TECHNICAL capability to understand what people want from a car. But to the root of it, I really have no clue. It would SEEM that the EcoSport and Edge would do very well. In fact I kinda like the Edge Sport and even the SEL 2.0 that I had for a rental when I was getting a half shaft replaced on my 350 wasn't really THAT bad.

So what are everyone's thoughts here? Do manufacturers have TOO many vehicle offerings? Not enough? Where are they missing the mark? Maybe Ford does have a point about ousting their passenger car portfolio and we just haven't seen the positive results yet. Again, let's look at this from an AVERAGE consumer's point of view. Yes, we love our V8's and our turbos and superchargers and all that but remember we are probably about only about 5% of the market. If the rest of the 95% doesn't survive, we don't survive.

Hackett is thinking at least five years into the future and maybe more. The V8 is dead in his mind even if he lies about it now.
 

EcoVert

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Well watching the interview Hackett was pretty vague on all his answers and I think that's the big problem the stockmarket has with him no clear plan. And his talk about all new vehicles coming out and how the current Explorer platform is nine years old well nine to ten years on a platform is pretty much a industry standard and anyone who knows about the auto industry knows this.
 

95CobraR

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The older auto manufacturing stocks have never performed well. It has nothing to do with future model platforms.

It's a very cyclical business with huge investments in plants, equipment, R&D, and skilled workers. Ford stock is at about $8.86 which is about the price in 1987. You should have bought a few Ford Bronco's or two 2005 Ford GT Heritage Editions.

GM is much worse as it actually filed bankruptcy on June 1, 2009. So all previous stocks and bonds were worthless at that point (it's been reorganized). It now sells a bit above or a bit lower than the new GM stock today

Nonetheless, a nice 1969 Corvette 427/430 ZL1 is worth $2.5M today.
 

Hack

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Jim Hackett clearly has not been the answer...for now.
It depends on what the goal is. If I owned/ran a company, maintaining high profits and future viability would be my key concerns. As far as I know, stock price is largely meaningless.

So I found this online;
  • Ford Motor revenue for the quarter ending December 31, 2018 was $0.000B, a 100% decline year-over-year.
  • Ford Motor revenue for the twelve months ending December 31, 2018 was $118.545B, a 24.39% decline year-over-year.
  • Ford Motor annual revenue for 2018 was $160.338B, a 2.27% increase from 2017.
  • Ford Motor annual revenue for 2017 was $156.776B, a 3.28% increase from 2016.
  • Ford Motor annual revenue for 2016 was $151.8B, a 1.5% increase from 2015.
You asked about stock prices. I think they have been driven down because Ford profits are down. The next step in analyzing this is to look at why profits are down. Are Ford's costs up? Are certain sales down? I don't know, but IMO that's where to find your answer.
 

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95CobraR

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...maintaining high profits and future viability would be my key concerns.....
All of the older automotive manufacturers have high costs (labor unions, plants and equipment). It's a cyclical business (bad times in a weak economy followed by great times). It the nature of the business.

Ford avoided bankruptcy 10 years ago by borrowing money before the debt market shut down, and they have the same stock that Henry Ford issued. GM went completely bankrupt and Chrysler was given away to Fiat (stockholders and bondholders were all wiped out). Investors remember this so they generally avoid buying the stocks.

If you look at the recent Ford audited balance sheet, you will see equity (net worth or book value) at ~$30B. You will see obligations (debt, payables, and other deferred items) of around ~$200B. There is also no growth in vehicle sales as the U.S. market is stuck at ~18m units/year.

I could pick any tech stock. I'll go with Alphabet Inc Class A. The have net equity of $139B with obligations of $28B. They are also growing very well.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/...kq42017.htm#s6CC5C2BD0728B11E130778DBCA048E48

I think Ford management has done very well considering the hand that was dealt them. They make great trucks and a great car. Google will not enter a car in the GT class at Le Mans this summer.
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Anthony 05 GT

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I think the last post makes a lot of sense. I also think the next American car company that takes a huge leap in general vehicle styling will do better than the others. That's also a huge risk, but people want to have a love affair so to speak with their cars. I personally get tired of most vehicles looking basically the same with few exceptions. Definitely don't want to see another Aztec, that would be suicide. People want innovation in styling by the leap, but again...better be on the mark.

I also think that stripped or lower end models of the same cars suffer from intentional designing that looks bad. For example, lower end F-series trucks with black grills and bumpers make the brand take a hit. I know that's how they make money by charging more for the chrome and alloy wheels, but damn, the trucks cost a fortune these days. Lots of competition out there these days.
 

95CobraR

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...I also think the next American car company that takes a huge leap in general vehicle styling will do better than the others....
It's Ford vs. GM. Dodge is actually an Italian company.

I say buy the car and not the stock. Ford has always been the leader in performance cars.
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Anthony 05 GT

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I know they are owned by Fiat, but most Americans consider Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram an American Co. Most profits go to Fiat
 

95CobraR

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I know they are owned by Fiat, but most Americans consider Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram an American Co. Most profits go to Fiat
I guess the Fiat mini-vans are Chrysler?

Dodge was founded it 1900 by two brothers in Auburn Hills, MI. Someone made a mistake and all of the 119 years of technology is now owned by Fiat? American workers and American technology made the Hemi, Jeep, and Ram part of our culture.

I understand the above American brands are now keeping Fiat from bankruptcy?

Thank goodness for Ford, or we all would be riding around in foreign cars.
 

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Hackett's not hacking it....I fail to understand how someone who came from filing cabinets has a real clue about manufacturing something as complex as a late-model vehicle.
 

95CobraR

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Hackett's not hacking it....I fail to understand how someone who came from filing cabinets has a real clue about manufacturing something as complex as a late-model vehicle.
Do you have a large exposure in Ford stock?

I own 88 shares back from when Ford sold Visteon (parts) and Associates (financing). I made money and ended up with 88 shares of Ford since I like to read their annual report every year. They mail 'em to me.

They kick butt in the domestic truck category. Their foreign deals mostly suck.

It's not their fault since their foreign competitors have a tariff advantage and much more foreign government support for the folks that work in the plants. It gets complicated here.

I am buying a new Mustang and a new Ranger truck. So, it is nothing like buying a new Ford to offer your opinion.
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