ford has a new plan

[Epiphany]

The global community will ultimately dictate which way we go, our elected leaders and their policies we support or challenge will determine the pace.

That's not a model we subscribed to in the past, aside from the last Administration. When it comes to the future of the automobile and related legislation I sincerely hope we don't follow the European "model" for example. It would not bode well for the displacement biased performance cars we embrace on this side of the globe - at all.

Most buy on what their needs are. If they need a truck for work or just like the look they are going to buy regardless of who is in office or what the current EPA regs are. A good example is us buying the GT350s even though they have a gas guzzler tax. We wanted them so we bought them regardless.

There is a new group of consumers that don't want to bothered with anything car related. Down to filling it up with gas. No checking or worrying about when to change your oil etc etc. They want cars as maintenance/worry free as humanly possible.

People can't buy what the automakers don't make.

This "new group" worries me on a number of fronts. They want a lot of things but sadly don't want to put in the effort.

This concept will work great in densely populated areas. Not so much in areas where there are 10 people per 100 square miles.

You got it. Large cities may embrace driverless pods. Outside of the cities, no.

Sponsored

 

[MrCincinnati]

That's not a model we subscribed to in the past, aside from the last Administration. When it comes to the future of the automobile and related legislation I sincerely hope we don't follow the European "model" for example. It would not bode well for the displacement biased performance cars we embrace on this side of the globe - at all.

Sure it is... 1970s... OPEC.

However - I agree - it wouldn't bode well for displacement biased performance cars, but the future, in general, doesn't bode well for these vehicles... which is one of many reasons it's great to be alive now ;)

 

[Minn19]

People can't buy what the automakers don't make.

This "new group" worries me on a number of fronts. They want a lot of things but sadly don't want to put in the effort.

Ok what don't they make or haven't made that people want. Is there something you have wanted and can't get? Because it sure seems like we have more choice now than we ever have before.

Besides driverless autonomous cars? ;)

 

[Epiphany]

Sure it is... 1970s... OPEC.

However - I agree - it wouldn't bode well for displacement biased performance cars, but the future, in general, doesn't bode well for these vehicles... which is one of many reasons it's great to be alive now ;)

OPEC, both the past and potential future impact, is a whole nother discussion. My sense was that you were implying we follow the European emission/safety/taxation model with respect to automobiles.

Ok what don't they make or haven't made that people want. Is there something you have wanted and can't get? Because it sure seems like we have more choice now than we ever have before.

Besides driverless autonomous cars? ;)

How many V8 RWD car models does Ford sell? How many have frames? If you were a fan of the luxo-barge your only choice in a domestic is an SUV/Truck. Want a "big block" sized engine? Five liters is the new "big."

 

[MrCincinnati]

OPEC, both the past and potential future impact, is a whole nother discussion. My sense was that you were implying we follow the European emission/safety/taxation model with respect to automobiles.

I wasn't being specific or attempting to imply any specific global direction. We are part of a global community - and when global issues impact us, we will react to them. If those global influences, as they pertain to automobiles, are greater than our independent ability to overcome them - we will arch in that direction. If we buck the trend and go in a different direction and don't arch toward it in any way - then we clearly are the stronger influence and the global influence will be largely on our accord.

But - as I think we can all agree - the global players are stronger than in the past and their influences - economically, socially and otherwise are also. We won't be able to stand alone and buck global trends for the longterm.

 

[oldbmwfan]

OPEC, both the past and potential future impact, is a whole nother discussion. My sense was that you were implying we follow the European emission/safety/taxation model with respect to automobiles.

How many V8 RWD car models does Ford sell? How many have frames? If you were a fan of the luxo-barge your only choice in a domestic is an SUV/Truck. Want a "big block" sized engine? Five liters is the new "big."

I struggle to see why that's bad, unless you're the super rare person who needs the 8.1L Suburban to tow the 15k-lb trailer over the mountain. When my 1.4L Fiesta ST can handily outperform the peak of 1980s small-motor technology that was the E30 M3 (despite being wrong-wheel-drive), and my 3L N54 puts more power down than pretty much any modern Mustang up to and including the Terminator, what's not to love? Oh and I picked up that 135i with mods for about $20k, and it does 29mpg highway and can top 150 on the back stretch at Mid-Ohio on undersized RA1s, and it's very comfortable for a 6k-mile road trip around the National Parks to boot (and it may or may not have crossed eastern Oregon at 130+ mph).

I think this is the absolute best time to live as a car junkie, and I think there will still be fun cars for a very, very long time. People still ride horses even though they don't use them for transport outside of Amish country. When most cars are autonomous, only fun cars will be marketed to drivers. They'll be lower-volume and expensive, but who cares? My '68 1600 will still be running, too ...

It's worth reading up on how Porsche talks about autonomous driving in its cars. They have no intention of building boring, commoditized pods, but that doesn't mean they're closing their eyes to future trends. Imagine the GT3 that drives you to the track as you nap or work or read, then you disable all the auto controls and drive the hell out of it yourself.

 

[oldbmwfan]

It does not help our ability to buck the trends or to lead globally when we cede leadership to China.

They outpace us on solar energy production capacity, manufacturing capability (in most areas), and a number of other areas, while we try to keep coal mining afloat. As a strategist, I'd say we're doing it wrong.

 

[Minn19]

How many V8 RWD car models does Ford sell? How many have frames? If you were a fan of the luxo-barge your only choice in a domestic is an SUV/Truck. Want a "big block" sized engine? Five liters is the new "big."

That is fair, but by and large think it is still a great time to be a car guy/gal.

Plus, a lot of what you speak of I think is still consumer driven and the market doesn't want cars like that anymore. Much like the why the manual has all but disappeared because nobody wants them, but us car nuts. Also, people think they new FWD for winter or AWD for safety due to marketing by the car companies etc.

 

[FocusRS]

Local police departments will need a whole new business model. Unless computers pay tickets?

 

[Epiphany]

I struggle to see why that's bad, unless you're the super rare person who needs the 8.1L Suburban to tow the 15k-lb trailer over the mountain.

You're not nationalistic when it comes to the purchase of an automobile. Many are and in that context, they see their choices as being influenced from not only governmental intervention but global pressure to go smaller. Smaller implies less weight, greater fuel efficiency, and potentially, better performance. The struggle however, is balancing safety and cost if this is the mantra. The argument that increased economies of scale will be bring the prices down when government mandates force change aren't always in line. Witness the CF wheels your car came with. Great for performance and efficiency but the cost (as much as it has decreased) is still exorbitant.

From an urban perspective, that "8.1L Suburban" might be rare. I doubt there are a lot of them on city streets in Chicago. Get out into the rest of the country, just south of you, and you'll find that to not be the case.

It does not help our ability to buck the trends or to lead globally when we cede leadership to China.

They outpace us on solar energy production capacity, manufacturing capability (in most areas), and a number of other areas, while we try to keep coal mining afloat. As a strategist, I'd say we're doing it wrong.

Ceding leadership as you put it is a byproduct of our country's desire to consume at the lowest price point possible. Our craving to buy inexpensive items is directly responsible for creating the economic powerhouse that China has become. I do not see that changing. Thankfully, we aren't (yet) buying Chinese cars or tires. Unless you're a fan of failure, at current, this is a good thing.

You bring up energy production capacity, manufacturing capability, and then coal mining. Based on your geographic location and previous comments I find that a bit interesting. In the context of offshore manufacturing, you well know what we are up against. Technological advancements aside, we have a major hurdle when it comes to the cost of labor. Post industrial revolution and 20th century unionization (however smaller it may have become), the playing field is nowhere near even. How we level that field is fodder for some rather interesting points of view but most all of them share the same stark reality - we won't go backwards to move forward. Hence, things are not changing.

Your comment on coal...the last Administration was hellbent on destroying the entire industry and said as much. Pay a visit to West Virginia. They lost some 35,000 jobs between 2011 and 2016 as a direct result. Any discussion of "clean coal" simply wasn't going to be heard. Almost 65% of the nation's power grid is powered by fossil fuels, 30% of which is coal. Renwables are less than 15%. It might be hip or trendy to talk about wind/solar but the fact is they don't provide for baseload, non-stop power that coal can.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

Eliminating coal, were I a strategist for reliable power, would be a horrible idea at this juncture. Rather costly too.

That is fair, but by and large think it is still a great time to be a car guy/gal.

Plus, a lot of what you speak of I think is still consumer driven and the market doesn't want cars like that anymore. Much like the why the manual has all but disappeared because nobody wants them, but us car nuts.

It is a great time, I wholeheartedly agree.

 

[oldbmwfan]

You're not nationalistic when it comes to the purchase of an automobile. Many are and in that context, they see their choices as being influenced from not only governmental intervention but global pressure to go smaller. Smaller implies less weight, greater fuel efficiency, and potentially, better performance. The struggle however, is balancing safety and cost if this is the mantra. The argument that increased economies of scale will be bring the prices down when government mandates force change aren't always in line. Witness the CF wheels your car came with. Great for performance and efficiency but the cost (as much as it has decreased) is still exorbitant.

From an urban perspective, that "8.1L Suburban" might be rare. I doubt there are a lot of them on city streets in Chicago. Get out into the rest of the country, just south of you, and you'll find that to not be the case.



Ceding leadership as you put it is a byproduct of our country's desire to consume at the lowest price point possible. Our craving to buy inexpensive items is directly responsible for creating the economic powerhouse that China has become. I do not see that changing. Thankfully, we aren't (yet) buying Chinese cars or tires. Unless you're a fan of failure, at current, this is a good thing.

You bring up energy production capacity, manufacturing capability, and then coal mining. Based on your geographic location and previous comments I find that a bit interesting. In the context of offshore manufacturing, you well know what we are up against. Technological advancements aside, we have a major hurdle when it comes to the cost of labor. Post industrial revolution and 20th century unionization (however smaller it may have become), the playing field is nowhere near even. How we level that field is fodder for some rather interesting points of view but most all of them share the same stark reality - we won't go backwards to move forward. Hence, things are not changing.

Your comment on coal...the last Administration was hellbent on destroying the entire industry and said as much. Pay a visit to West Virginia. They lost some 35,000 jobs between 2011 and 2016 as a direct result. Any discussion of "clean coal" simply wasn't going to be heard. Almost 65% of the nation's power grid is powered by fossil fuels, 30% of which is coal. Renwables are less than 15%. It might be hip or trendy to talk about wind/solar but the fact is they don't provide for baseload, non-stop power that coal can.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

Eliminating coal, were I a strategist for reliable power, would be a horrible idea at this juncture. Rather costly too.



It is a great time, I wholeheartedly agree.

Some good points to consider.

Re. nationalistic, you're correct. If I were, I'd limit my BMWs to X5s and Z4s. ;-) As it happens my X5 is the worst car I've ever owned ...

Re. 8.1L commonality, my apologies as I was unclear. What is rare isn't the vehicle, but the NEED. Most people driving those things don't use the functionality. Yes, one can say the same of the GT350/R, but I view a toy a little bit differently from a tool. It's a personal bias I'll acknowledge. (Incidentally, the X5 tows a car on an open trailer beautifully - for moderate use, more comfortable to drive than an F250 dually for the same load. Enclose the trailer and the story changes drastically).

Re. demand for cheap crap ... sadly, you're right on. I think our country would look a lot different/ better today if people were consciously willing to consume a little less and pay a little more for it.

Re. coal ... we'll just have to disagree. My PhD was focused on solar energy biomaterials, so I've looked into the industry more broadly quite a bit. Coal jobs were not killed by the last administration, but by automation - and the decline started back in the '70s. Smart leadership in WV WOULD have seen that train coming way, way down the tracks and invested in other industries before local employment levels were in crisis mode. Look at the relative slope of coal consumption vs. coal employment for the first half of the first charts here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...revive-u-s-coal-output-jobs-are-another-story Jobs dropping precipitously as consumption rose. Scroll down further, and you'll see that "clean coal" is actually a geologic property, not an engineering one, and the relatively cleaner coal isn't in WV anyway.

Fracking and super-cheap natural gas did the rest of the damage. Renewables, as you mention, are incidental for most (not all) of the country, but gas can run a plant just as well as coal can and it's cheap and abundant now. Check out the relative slope of NG and coal by state: state-level generation sources

Regulation can constrain a market and relative competitiveness, but ultimately the driver is demand and margins. When local and state leadership buries its head in the sand and plays protectionist rather than seeing the writing on the wall, that's bad strategic planning.

As for perspective, I grew up in a rural Indiana town of ~10k people, then lived for 10 years in PA - both coal and natural gas country. I don't own an EV in Chicago because it would be a coal-powered car, actually more environmentally harmful than gas. If I lived in CA or WA or another state with lots of hydro, I'd be all over it.

In general, I like to avoid the simple answer for most things, because the simple answer is usually insufficient. Some regulations could hurt the coal industry, but repealing those regulations won't generate meaningful demand when competitive and arguably superior energy sources are getting cheaper all the time.

 

[Epiphany]

Excellent.

I smiled the whole time reading your response. I had the same Bloomberg article up and ready to go as I wondered if you were versed on how automation has impacted upon the industry. I don't know if you fell upon it or had seen it previously but kudos to you my friend.

Regarding coal - jobs were absolutely lost to planning and decision making in the last 8 years at the Executive level. The extent to which will be far more reaching with the passage of time. Yes, automation has had an impact. But the most direct way was to legislate what in effect would be the phasing out of coal fired generation plants via Obama's "Climate Action Plan" as a "ban on constructing new coal-fired power plants…as there is no technology commercially available and capable of meeting the standards set."
https://shimkus.house.gov/media-center/opeds/obamas-epa-trying-to-kill-coal-raise-your-electric-bill

I get the fact that various states have been able to "decouple" their economic growth from growth in carbon emissions. Decarbonizing has been embraced and as such anything dirty is something to be avoided politically (and we are told now, morally, "just think about the children") and from a corporate standpoint. Coal has been painted such that it is so awful it will most likely never recover.

Some regulations could hurt the coal industry, but repealing those regulations won't generate meaningful demand when competitive and arguably superior energy sources are getting cheaper all the time.

Bottom line - we need a relatively inexpensive, robust and reliable power grid. At current, we have that with coal (witness the charts in one of your links). Diversification is what made it this way. Momentum has gained such that we are headed in a direction that will reduce the number of choices, increase cost to the consumer, and be potentially less reliable.

 

[MrCincinnati]

Excellent.

I smiled the whole time reading your response. I had the same Bloomberg article up and ready to go as I wondered if you were versed on how automation has impacted upon the industry. I don't know if you fell upon it or had seen it previously but kudos to you my friend.

Regarding coal - jobs were absolutely lost to planning and decision making in the last 8 years at the Executive level. The extent to which will be far more reaching with the passage of time. Yes, automation has had an impact. But the most direct way was to legislate what in effect would be the phasing out of coal fired generation plants via Obama's "Climate Action Plan" as a "ban on constructing new coal-fired power plants…as there is no technology commercially available and capable of meeting the standards set."
https://shimkus.house.gov/media-center/opeds/obamas-epa-trying-to-kill-coal-raise-your-electric-bill

I get the fact that various states have been able to "decouple" their economic growth from growth in carbon emissions. Decarbonizing has been embraced and as such anything dirty is something to be avoided politically (and we are told now, morally, "just think about the children") and from a corporate standpoint. Coal has been painted such that it is so awful it will most likely never recover.



Bottom line - we need a relatively inexpensive, robust and reliable power grid. At current, we have that with coal (witness the charts in one of your links). Diversification is what made it this way. Momentum has gained such that we are headed in a direction that will reduce the number of choices, increase cost to the consumer, and be potentially less reliable.

Coal isn't sustainable for the long term ecologically and environmentally - and the push by supporters to further deregulate cannibalizes the workforce. You mentioned the moral implications of continuing down a path with harmful consequences to those other than ourselves and it almost seems like that's a non issue to you? Perhaps you truly don't believe there's a long term issue.

That aside, there are long term issues associated with planning for a continued reliance on majority fossil fuels. We are literally in hot water. China is leading the charge and we've walked away not only from leading but from the table altogether - politically/governmentally. Our current positions are not sustainable, and while you or I may not suffer the full impact of this recklessness, our grandchildren surely will.

 

[JAJ]

...we need a relatively inexpensive, robust and reliable power grid...

It doesn't look quite so inexpensive when you add in the cost of floods in Texas, devastation in Puerto Rico, storm damage in Florida and entire towns burned flat in California. Coal is not inexpensive; like many compromises, it looks that way because it moves the cost to "someone who isn't me".

 

[cking]

First talk about thread drift. My prediction a neutered FP.
Power Grid... The idea of a power grid is no longer relevant. The old system of large scale power plants has died along with need for long distance transmission lines. Reason dual cycle natural gas generators. The are small cheap and need very little maintenance, don't pollute, need very little water. What we need is more gas pipelines. A recent article tried to say pipelines will fail because the compressor stations run of the grid. Not so they run off the gas in the pipeline. Dual cycle has highest efficiency of any fossil fuel. A turbine burns gas to turn a generator then hot exhaust boils water to turn another generator. They only need maintenance once a year! A unit will fit on trailer bed, when its worn out a new one arrives and can be swapped in day. Lots industry that needs lots of juice like data centers are generating there own power. Thus no grid necessary. This allows New development to provide its own power. Look at Florida. Three pipelines one from Louisiana buried, one from Texas under the gulf, and Sable/Sabine gas from marcleus. Makes them all compete on price and redundancy. So lots of little plants no grid. Better.
Also you can take old coal plant gut the building put in two gas lines. Leave the 1950 edifice in place, make a park out the old parking lot and coal storage area, remove railroad tracks put in bike trail. Get twice as much power and sell distilled water. Problem hardly no employees. Makes money for town. Nothing but CO2. GAS will eclipse coal and nuclear and works well with wind and solar because of fast up/down cycles. Wind, Thermal and Solar will need grids because you need lots of space away from people. Gas will provide best price

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