Sponsored

Science is now cancelled? [USERS NOW BANNED FOR POLITICS]

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE
Hello; I was a minor scientist who wound up teaching science in schools so, as you already know, I am not qualified to have an opinion according to some on this site. I did learn about two things during my 32 years on the job and many graduate hours of science courses.

One is the WAG, the other is the SWAG. A WAG is a best guess from an ordinary person. WAG = Wild @ss Guess.
The SWAG is a best guess from someone trained in science. SWAG= Scientific Wild @ss Guess.
Sponsored

 

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE
Same thing as cell phone or any other LIPO. Fully charged bad. Below 20% bad. Closer between that range is the best with the most charge cycles coming when charged between 40-70%. The biggest problem with charging to 100% is the cells increase in voltage when heated. Over voltage is the 2nd worst thing you can do to LIPOs. Total discharge being the worst.
Hello; Ok, so I can see how to keep track of the discharge. I think the dash of an EV shows charge or miles left. I am not so sure about the charge part. I suppose I could try to guess the time and go unplug the charger. Is there a better way?
 

MaskedRacerX

Driver
Joined
Sep 20, 2015
Threads
73
Messages
5,678
Reaction score
4,746
Location
Vilano Beach, FL
First Name
DT
Vehicle(s)
'21_JWS4XE / '21_TM3P
However, some experts say it is best to avoid letting the charge routinely drop below 45%”
No actual owners do this, and none of them have notable additional degradation - most folks do 15-20% to 85%, which also keeps it at a higher charge rate window, and if you're doing a bit of a longer run, simple, charge it to 100% before you leave, run it down to 10%, you'll be fine.

Tesla historical data shows a 2-5% degradation over 50K miles, and less than another 5% over the next 150K, i.e., ~200K while retaining 90% or better charging capacity.

A buddy of mine is at about a 6% loss on a Model S with ~90K miles (and 4 years old).

All the charging data can be downloaded, in fact, the car has an API, so you can even write your own code to access car data, features, program automation, connect it with other services, etc., it's very sophisticated.


Hello; Ok, so I can see how to keep track of the discharge. I think the dash of an EV shows charge or miles left. I am not so sure about the charge part. I suppose I could try to guess the time and go unplug the charger. Is there a better way?
Of course, cars like a Tesla are built by pretty sharp engineers and software developers who would know this is a common use case. Also, many "smart" EVSEs can manage this as well (FYI, a wall charger [an EVSE] isn't really a charger, it's more like a switch).

You can set a max charge, scheduled charge (by date/time), you can even do things like have the car+EVSE poll a smart meter and determine the best rate (where it's variable, or you only want to use surplus power from something like home solar). The nav systems are integrated into the battery subsystem, so even on the fly, they can plan for stops along your route (and adapt on the fly to route changes).
 

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE
No actual owners do this, and none of them have notable additional degradation - most folks do 15-20% to 85%, which also keeps it at a higher charge rate window, and if you're doing a bit of a longer run, simple, charge it to 100% before you leave, run it down to 10%, you'll be fine.

Tesla historical data shows a 2-5% degradation over 50K miles, and less than another 5% over the next 150K, i.e., ~200K while retaining 90% or better charging capacity.

A buddy of mine is at about a 6% loss on a Model S with ~90K miles (and 4 years old).

All the charging data can be downloaded, in fact, the car has an API, so you can even write your own code to access car data, features, program automation, connect it with other services, etc., it's very sophisticated.




Of course, cars like a Tesla are built by pretty sharp engineers and software developers who would know this is a common use case. Also, many "smart" EVSEs can manage this as well (FYI, a wall charger [an EVSE] isn't really a charger, it's more like a switch).

You can set a max charge, scheduled charge (by date/time), you can even do things like have the car+EVSE poll a smart meter and determine the best rate (where it's variable, or you only want to use surplus power from something like home solar). The nav systems are integrated into the battery subsystem, so even on the fly, they can plan for stops along your route (and adapt on the fly to route changes).
Hello; Thanks for the information. I am thinking Tesla is a high end/ higher cost sort of EV. I am more likely to be in the Nissan Leaf sort of market. I already am not a fan of the tech built into the current vehicles.
I do like the computer run fuel injection on an ICE which make them start and run better and get better fuel economy. Beyond that I could live with the old analogue stuff for the rest of a vehicle. Before you say it I know that boat has sailed and i will have to live with the vehicles the way they are now.
Guess what I am saying is an EV with the fewest bells and whistles would be my choice. I get that to run properly an EV will have to have a computer. I do not want it to self drive or park itself or tell me where to go.
Went with my brother last week on a trip of a little over 100 miles. His smartphone tried to send us on roads not good to be on. We were going to an area I am familiar with. A couple of times I knew better and told him to ignore the smart phone. Knowing we would wind up back on the same good road we were already on without an unneeded detour on some rough back roads.
I still can recall a trip a few years ago on which we wound up on a very narrow gravel road high on a ridge near Newport TN by listening to his Garmin. He likes new tech.
 

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE
MIT's 1972 prediction of society collapsing could happen by 2040 (msn.com)

Hello; Ran across this article today. Decided to add it to this thread. Partly because it uses computer models to make prediction of the near future. Partly because the first computer generated graph with lots of lines sorta predict some things the way I had figured they could go back in the 1970's. Not clear to me if I saw this back in the day, but such is possible. I do not recall such a graph however.
I do understand how the lines on the first graph may work and can see how that graph lays out a possible scenario. I do not have faith in the time lines as the events I figured on back decades ago have taken much longer in actuality. That first graph goes to the idea some of us have presented which holds there are several more important things going on than climate change.

I do not exactly follow how the second graph alters the outcomes the way it does. The article refers to slowing growth but does not go into details about how that growth slowing will work. I already did a small part in slowing the growth of population and can say I have been thinking the effort was a waste, but the second graph shows a population stabilized at a high number.
The second graph shows a peak and then decline of food production but later an increase in food production again which is very different from the first graph. That is a key feature I want to find out more about. The first graph does fit with the depletions of topsoil, ground water and the loss of farmland I have been following for decades in terms of food production. I do not quite see how the second graph reverses the loss of food production.

Anyway those who have strong faith in computer climate models now have other computer generated models to have faith in.

I will be trying to look into these models some more.
 

Sponsored

MaskedRacerX

Driver
Joined
Sep 20, 2015
Threads
73
Messages
5,678
Reaction score
4,746
Location
Vilano Beach, FL
First Name
DT
Vehicle(s)
'21_JWS4XE / '21_TM3P
Hello; Thanks for the information. I am thinking Tesla is a high end/ higher cost sort of EV. I am more likely to be in the Nissan Leaf sort of market. I already am not a fan of the tech built into the current vehicles.
Seems like most, if not all[?] modern-ish EVs have at a minimum, charge control like I described above - that part is pretty simple, set max charge, plug-in, stops at selected amount, turns off charging. It's like pre-paying for $10 of gas, the pump stops when you hit that dollar amount :D

With a car like a Tesla, you can just drive it and ignore most of the tech, I guess it sort of depends on how much value you place on the performance (where applicable), charging infrastructure, range, etc., vs. the extra bells ~n~ whistles.

i.e., if the latter doesn't have much, then you're probably overpaying. Though I'd point out there are options like the Model 3 SR+ that's ~$38K, so not insanely expensive - and the [potential] savings from gas - and, I suspect we'll get some kind of Fed tax credit revisions that include Tesla (the one proposal would give $10K tax credits for Teslas under $90K).
 

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE
Seems like most, if not all[?] modern-ish EVs have at a minimum, charge control like I described above - that part is pretty simple, set max charge, plug-in, stops at selected amount, turns off charging. It's like pre-paying for $10 of gas, the pump stops when you hit that dollar amount :D

With a car like a Tesla, you can just drive it and ignore most of the tech, I guess it sort of depends on how much value you place on the performance (where applicable), charging infrastructure, range, etc., vs. the extra bells ~n~ whistles.

i.e., if the latter doesn't have much, then you're probably overpaying. Though I'd point out there are options like the Model 3 SR+ that's ~$38K, so not insanely expensive - and the [potential] savings from gas - and, I suspect we'll get some kind of Fed tax credit revisions that include Tesla (the one proposal would give $10K tax credits for Teslas under $90K).
Hello; $38 K seems expensive to replace an ICE such as my Sentra which can be done in the low 20K's.
I never have been a stoplight warrior. I do like a car which is quick. Mostly I want a car to handle decently. The quick torque which translates to acceleration from a stop holds little appeal if the vehicle is heavy and cumbersome on the road.

Afraid my attitude about having an EV is sort of like going to a dentist. I will if I have to but want to spend the least amount to do so. I do appreciate that you have given good information without throwing in the unneeded jabs and criticisms. I can see how I will not have much of a choice in the matter so want to learn what I may be getting into.

Thanks for being civil.
 

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE
MIT's 1972 prediction of society collapsing could happen by 2040 (msn.com)

Hello; Ran across this article today. Decided to add it to this thread. Partly because it uses computer models to make prediction of the near future. Partly because the first computer generated graph with lots of lines sorta predict some things the way I had figured they could go back in the 1970's. Not clear to me if I saw this back in the day, but such is possible. I do not recall such a graph however.
I do understand how the lines on the first graph may work and can see how that graph lays out a possible scenario. I do not have faith in the time lines as the events I figured on back decades ago have taken much longer in actuality. That first graph goes to the idea some of us have presented which holds there are several more important things going on than climate change.

I do not exactly follow how the second graph alters the outcomes the way it does. The article refers to slowing growth but does not go into details about how that growth slowing will work. I already did a small part in slowing the growth of population and can say I have been thinking the effort was a waste, but the second graph shows a population stabilized at a high number.
The second graph shows a peak and then decline of food production but later an increase in food production again which is very different from the first graph. That is a key feature I want to find out more about. The first graph does fit with the depletions of topsoil, ground water and the loss of farmland I have been following for decades in terms of food production. I do not quite see how the second graph reverses the loss of food production.

Anyway those who have strong faith in computer climate models now have other computer generated models to have faith in.

I will be trying to look into these models some more.

Hello: I went back to the above link and found an imbedded link with more detailed information. That link is below. I copied the abstract and paste it here. It will take a while to go thru the information so I may come back after a while.

Update to limits to growth (kpmg.us)

Quotes from the link

“Abstract”

“In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global soci[1]ety kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food produc[1]tion, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors

used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, vary[1]ing model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical-data com[1]parisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended

in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what

extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological,

resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data avail[1]ability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had

not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with

observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next

decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth

as humanity’s goal in the twenty-first century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent

declines in these variables, but only one—where declines are caused by pollution—

depicts a collapse. The scenario that aligned most closely in earlier comparisons was

not amongst the two closest aligning scenarios in this research. The scenario with the

smallest declines aligned least with empirical data; however, absolute differences were

often not yet large. The four scenarios diverge significantly more after 2020, suggest[1]ing that the window to align with this last scenario is closing.

KEYWORDS

collapse, industrial ecology, limits to growth, system dynamics modeling, systems thinking,

World3”
 

MaskedRacerX

Driver
Joined
Sep 20, 2015
Threads
73
Messages
5,678
Reaction score
4,746
Location
Vilano Beach, FL
First Name
DT
Vehicle(s)
'21_JWS4XE / '21_TM3P
Hello; $38 K seems expensive to replace an ICE such as my Sentra which can be done in the low 20K's.
I never have been a stoplight warrior. I do like a car which is quick. Mostly I want a car to handle decently. The quick torque which translates to acceleration from a stop holds little appeal if the vehicle is heavy and cumbersome on the road.

Afraid my attitude about having an EV is sort of like going to a dentist. I will if I have to but want to spend the least amount to do so. I do appreciate that you have given good information without throwing in the unneeded jabs and criticisms. I can see how I will not have much of a choice in the matter so want to learn what I may be getting into.

Thanks for being civil.
Oh yeah, a Tesla is still a bit pricey in the context of cars like the Sentra or even base Golfs, Mazda 3, etc., there's word of a Model 2, a sub-25K model that would look like a slick little hatch (kind of sized like a VW GTI), but I think they're waiting on the new battery cell tech, so they can package 200-225 miles into a smaller chassis.

Don't forget, there will very possibly be another Fed tax credit (if applicable to you), one option was like a $7500 "base", then another $2500 for cars manufactured in the US, and another $2500 for cars built with UAW workers, so in that case, Tesla would be applicable for a $10K credit (they don't use union workers).

Right now, it's applicable to Ford, VW, Jeep, others - and it looks like some great options coming from Hyundai / Kia (they're both building some great vehicles, we very seriously considered a Kia Telluride with the Midnight package).
 

Sponsored

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE
Electricity regulation might slow EV infrastructure (msn.com)
Hello; This link has stuff new to me. Turns out there are some not so straight forward rules about selling electricity in some places. I will pull a few quotes.

Quotes from link: “It's "nearly impossible" for fuel retailers in most states to profit off EV charging, because of regulations in place that keep businesses from selling electricity for more than it costs them”
Hello; This is a new one to me.

“Tesla, which makes three of the top five most popular EVs in the country, has installed more than 25,000 charging stations around the world for their customers only. Owning the car is the buy-in to use Tesla's chargers.”
Hello; I should have understood this one. You have to own a Tesla to use their charge stations.

“ChargePoint and EVgo, offer customers subscriptions or pay-as-you-go models to "refuel."”

“Charging providers can offer EV drivers per-minute rates for the time they're parked charging up or per-mile rates that are often allotted in monthly subscriptions. This allows them to operate where it is otherwise illegal to resell kilowatt hours of electricity.”
Hello; We have discussed this one a bit so far. What I missed is what appears to be the need to subscribe to one of the plans. I had the silly notion I could use any charge station I can find. If I have this wrong please correct me, but it seems I cannot have access to a lot of the chargers without a plan of some sort. It will not be like pulling into any handy gas station along the way.

“Utilities typically bill commercial customers both for pulling power from the grid as well as for the electricity used. “ “"So if you have one charge session in the month or 100, that component of a bill is the same. So if you have a charger that's not very well utilized, you can still be paying a pretty high electricity bill. And so until you get utilization up on your charges, profitability is pretty low" for gas stations and independent providers who participate in subscription programs, Fitzgerald said.”
Hello; This is news to me. A commercial business pays both for a hook up and for the electricity used. A big gamble to set up the expensive tp buy and install charge stations without knowing you have the demand.

For some time I had figured the problem would be having a commercial space occupied for nearly an hour while a charge station is in use.


“without that federal funding, experts warn certain communities might be left out of the EV boom. Today, sales are significantly lower in rural and low-income communities. Since it's hard for a business to make money with an EV charger, Fitzgerald worries retailers and developers in areas where few people drive EVs won't build them — and because there's nowhere to charge, people won't buy new EVs. That would leave those areas — historically, some of the most affected by the pollution cars and trucks spew — the most reliant on the gas-powered vehicles of yesteryear.”

Hello; This will include my area.
 

K4fxd

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 2, 2020
Threads
102
Messages
10,365
Reaction score
8,501
Location
NKY
First Name
Dan
Vehicle(s)
2017 gt, 2002 FXDWG, 2008 C6,
IE commercial electricity rates.

Yes, commercial rates are significantly higher than residential. When I opened my first shop the rates shocked me.
 

sk47

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2020
Threads
27
Messages
4,968
Reaction score
2,334
Location
North Eastern TN
First Name
Jeff
Vehicle(s)
Chevy Silverado & Nissan Sentra SE
IE commercial electricity rates.

Yes, commercial rates are significantly higher than residential. When I opened my first shop the rates shocked me.
Hello; I live on a busy rural highway in an area not likely to adopt EV's in numbers. However within a mile is an even busier highway (US25E) which is traveled heavily as a short cut between I-75 at Corbin KY to I-80 near Morristown TN. Lots of big trucks use the route and I guess a few other vehicles.
I had the silly notion a person with parking space could set up a few charging stations in this area sort of like an electric oasis in the middle of nowhere. My first thinking has been what to provide while folks are killing time waiting for a charge. But that may be secondary to the rules about selling electricity, the cost of a level three charger and commercial rates.

The more I look into this EV thing, the more twists and turns come up.
 

MaskedRacerX

Driver
Joined
Sep 20, 2015
Threads
73
Messages
5,678
Reaction score
4,746
Location
Vilano Beach, FL
First Name
DT
Vehicle(s)
'21_JWS4XE / '21_TM3P
But that may be secondary to the rules about selling electricity, the cost of a level three charger and commercial rates.

The more I look into this EV thing, the more twists and turns come up.
FYI, I've been seeing some absolutely wrong info being posted about charging rates, sounds like typical FUD from people who get their "facts" from, well, you know ... :D

Anyway ...

As an example of a real trip that we might take*, FL to PA, SuC rates are $0.24 to $0.27 (a few @ $0.12 off hours like before 10a, etc.)

Using ABRP, the trip calculates out to 864 miles door_to_door and a cost of $39, using 25MPG for let's say a Mustang, that's ~35g needed at $3/g = $105 (cost equivalent MPG would be ~65 MPG)

(* Actually not doing that drive anymore, my ass can't take 12+ hours on the road, we only fly :D)
Sponsored

 
 




Top