2015 Mustang sales numbers and take rate predictions

Here are the Mustang's recent sales numbers by year:

2005 160,975
2006 166,530
2007 134,626
2008 91,251
2009 66,623
2010 73,716
2011 70,438
2012 82,995
2013 on pace for about 78k.

As background, Ford has sold 400k Ecoboost F150's since they were introduced in Feb 2011. (source)

The Ecoboost accounts for 45% of its sales which surpasses the V8 take rate since the 3.7L base accounts for a little over 10% take rate. Keep in mind also the F150 has 2 V8 options and together they still are outsold by the V6 Ecoboost.


My guess is total sales for the first full year could reach as high as 130-150k. If they can steal away about 20k Camaro/Challenger sales combined (look at how much of a hit the Mustang took in 2008/2009 when Camaro returned), add about 10k in overseas sales (based on their own estimates of 10% of total production ending up overseas), and add another 10-20k in NEW customers (meaning non pony car buyers) in the US, it's more than possible. I wonder what Ford has projected and what numbers they would be happy with.


As for take rate, from this forum alone it seems like there is a lot of interest in the new engine and I'm guessing V6 sales would account for no more than 15-20% of sales which would be about 20k cars. With fleet sales it could be higher but that's almost not enough to justify keeping it around. They might as well scrap it and add a new engine offering that could draw in even more customers.... like the 3.5L TT.

The 2008/2009 drop off wasn't just the Camaro, though. The end of 2008 through 2009 was the height of the Great Recession and housing market meltdown.

We are just now seeing the economy pick up to the point where there's normal growth and hiring.

The recession hit the auto industry pretty hard, and the Mustang was one of those vehicles that just didn't recover to it's pre-recession levels.

The retro styling was getting a bit stale, and for a lot of people in winter climates these cars are a second car/summer car, and people just didn't have the finances or wherewithall to spend the money.

A fresh, refined design coupled with the improving economy should help sales get back into six figures.

I'm sure Ford would be ecstatic with 140,000 sales for 2014-15 but Wildcat is right, the Camaro alone didn't have as much of an impact on the 2008/9 sales as the numbers suggest. Also have to remember there was pent up demand for being out of production and the 2014's are still selling. I think it'll be hard to steal 20k sales from existing pony car buyers but who knows. I'd love to see it.

Speaking of F150 EB take rate, I just saw on Jalop that the next F-150 could get a 2.7L EB, in line with earlier rumors it seems:

Levine went on to say that the engines, code-named "Nano", had displacements of "approximately 2.6 or 2.7 liters and 3.0 liters" and were slated for use in the 2015 Mustang and F-150. Rather than twin-turbos, the Nano engines would utilize a dual stage snail setup with a smaller turbo working for fuel economy at low speeds, and a larger one for additional power.



My guess is the I4 captures about almost 50% take rate for the new Mustang. Considering the V6 wont even be offered overseas it, it could just come down to the price difference between V6 and I4 in the US. I see very little reason to choose the V6 otherwise.

Frankly, I'll be surprised if the new car breaks 120K (10K units per month average) for its first 12 months.

I like the appearance of the car, and it seems like it will be a good value, but I just don't think it's enough of a 'game changer' to get back to '05-'07 levels.

aardvark said:

Frankly, I'll be surprised if the new car breaks 120K (10K units per month average) for its first 12 months.

I like the appearance of the car, and it seems like it will be a good value, but I just don't think it's enough of a 'game changer' to get back to '05-'07 levels.

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I think its a much bigger game changer than the last new chassis. I didn't even consider Mustangs at all, whatsoever until I saw this reveal and now I'm checking the Mustang forum everyday. I used to frequent BMW forums and only consider BMWs for a performance car.

I think it'll do at least as well as the last Mustang.

I think a lot of the sales numbers will depend on whether or not the prices are raised and by how much. I suspect Ford will sandwich the Ecoboost in between the V6 and GT in terms of price, causing the GT to come in price a bit.

aardvark said:

Frankly, I'll be surprised if the new car breaks 120K (10K units per month average) for its first 12 months.

I like the appearance of the car, and it seems like it will be a good value, but I just don't think it's enough of a 'game changer' to get back to '05-'07 levels.

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Bro, I have no idea what ur sayin^.

This new Mustang is the only reason many of us are even here. It is a much more sophisticated design and refined car than previous gens, enough to pull in people who otherwise would be looking at BMWs, Corvettes, etc..

The IRS is a game changer for many who "track" their cars.



I have never considered a Mustang, ever... until the announcement of the S550 and now I can't stop reading about it.

Wild Stang said:

I think a lot of the sales numbers will depend on whether or not the prices are raised and by how much. I suspect Ford will sandwich the Ecoboost in between the V6 and GT in terms of price, causing the GT to come in price a bit.

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The V6 is a base Mustang, the GT comes in either twin-scroll I-4, or V8.

w3rkn said:

I have never considered a Mustang, ever... until the announcement of the S550 and now I can't stop reading about it.

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Same here.

Similar feeling about the C7 Vette. Previously was leaning towards a Cayman, but the C7 and new Mustang open up a performance and value proposition that the Porsche can't touch. If the Mustang has as much an improvement in overall driving fun as the C7 did over the C6, it could be a real game changer for those hoping to get a somewhat practical, somewhat inexpensive, good handling car.

The Cayman has gone from 1st to 3rd on my list of potential cars, with the Mustang moving into #1 and the C7 following in a close 2nd.

Hopefully the Mustang can deliver in driving satisfaction as well as it delivers in style and practicality (relative to a Cayman or Vette). Will be interesting to see what the auto magazines have to say.

-T

I 2nd the comment that the recession really hurt the 2008+ cars for a few years. After that this era was/is getting long in the tooth. Time for the next generation indeed

aardvark said:

Frankly, I'll be surprised if the new car breaks 120K (10K units per month average) for its first 12 months.

I like the appearance of the car, and it seems like it will be a good value, but I just don't think it's enough of a 'game changer' to get back to '05-'07 levels.

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Game changer in design? Perhaps not (although I think it's a great looking car)
Game changer in performance... for a Mustang? Definitely (IMO)

In terms of sales, I'm not sure a game changer would even get it back to 05 levels. It's a totally different competitive environment out there. Ford has permanently lost a small % of buyers that have become 100% brand loyal to the Camaro. There's just fewer people who will even be looking at the car.

Honestly, we all know the V8 will outperform the Boss on the track which is stellar, but for the price and fun factor, the I4 could be the real game changer in the pony car market.

I agree that it IS a game changer. I just don't think it's the sort of game changer that's going to get the Mustang back to 160K or more units per year.

If you want to say that the market has changed, and nothing can get it back to 160K, fine. Fair enough. That's possible. I tend to disagree, though. I don't find it completely impossible to imagine Ford making a Mustang that could sell 200,000 units per year... that could sell as well as a Fusion or a Focus. What would that take? Frankly, I think it would take a lower price. I can imagine a smaller, cheaper, less-well-equipped Mustang starting at, say, $18K getting to 200K. Seriously.

Now, many will say, 'No freakin' way. I want a Mustang that competes with BMWs and Corvettes, not with Civics and Scions. I want all the bells and whistles, and if that means a starting price north of $25K, so be it.' And that's a perfectly valid point of view. I get that. It's just that the less affordable the car gets, the harder it will be to regain high-volume sales. Again, some will respond, 'Well, I don't care about high-volume sales. The more exclusive, the better.' And that's also a perfectly valid point of view. I'm just trying to offer an alternate viewpoint to those making bold predictions of this car selling in numbers equal or better than the '05-06.

I am going to sit on the pessimistic side. I will say around 85,000 sold for 2014. Reason why is the '15's won't be on the lots for but maybe 5 months of the year and the wind down of the 2014's won't generate a lot of sales either. I think 2015 will be the sales year to look at, I think 100K is the hard ceiling if you ask me.

Free Agent said:

I am going to sit on the pessimistic side. I will say around 85,000 sold for 2014. Reason why is the '15's won't be on the lots for but maybe 5 months of the year and the wind down of the 2014's won't generate a lot of sales either. I think 2015 will be the sales year to look at, I think 100K is the hard ceiling if you ask me.

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Are sale numbers recorded by actual year or model year? I was thinking the 2014 sale numbers would be listed under the total for the 2015 model year.

Wild Stang said:

Are sale numbers recorded by actual year or model year? I was thinking the 2014 sale numbers would be listed under the total for the 2015 model year.

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I believe 2014 sales (Jan. 1st thru Dec. 31st) include sales of all years of each vehicle. So it would include all 2014's and 2015's sold in the calendar year of 2014. With the 2015 not hitting lots until August as rumors would have it, and with sales slowing of 2014 models, I would not expect to see 2014 as a 6 figure Mustang sales year. Now possibly in 2015 I would guess. The competition for sales out there is fierce though and the economy isn't exactly rock solid as well. I'd hate for people to think those 2005 or 2006 numbers are the norm. They aren't anymore. :(